CSIS senior adviser and retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian joins Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn to examine America’s missile shortages, Ukraine’s air defense crisis, production bottlenecks, and the implications for deterring China.
Every interceptor fired today changes what America can defend tomorrow.
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CSIS senior adviser and retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian joins Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn to examine America’s missile shortages, Ukraine’s air defense crisis, and the implications for deterring China.
Revisiting his April report on munitions inventories, Cancian explains why Patriot and THAAD interceptors are especially difficult to replace. He gives his stockpile estimates, assesses the production bottlenecks, and considers what could help Ukraine sooner.
For background on the weapons discussed, explore the U.S. Arsenal Map (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/united-states/arsenal).
In this episode, we cover:
• Patriot, THAAD and SM-3 inventories, and the risk of a Pacific conflict
• Why expanding production takes years, even with more funding
• How planning for short wars squeezed out industrial surge capacity
• Critical minerals and competing civilian demand
• The obstacles to manufacturing Patriot interceptors in Ukraine
• Cheap drones, expensive defenses and emerging counter-drone systems
• Allied stockpile deals and the difficulty of hunting mobile launchers
Glenn brings observations from Ukraine, where shortages force painful choices about what to protect. The conversation connects factory output to civilian survival, allied commitments and U.S. readiness.
Go deeper with Restricted Handling
• Explore the military command and strategic institutions in the China Power Network (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/china).
• Revisit Dave Berke on Iran, Drones, and the Future of Air War (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/dave-berke-air-war) for his perspective on adapting to drones and finding mobile missile launchers.
Timeline / chapters
00:00 Introducing Mark Cancian
01:10 Patriot, THAAD and the shortage of substitutes
03:40 How Patriot performs against advanced missiles
04:54 How many interceptors are left?
05:51 The China contingency and interception trade-offs
08:22 Can America accelerate missile production?
12:56 How short-war planning stripped out surge capacity
15:55 Critical minerals and the civilian economy
17:07 Zelensky’s Patriot demands and U.S. supply limits
20:32 Who gets the next Patriot interceptor?
21:59 Can Ukraine manufacture Patriot interceptors?
24:58 Cheap drones, jet-powered threats and countermeasures
29:10 Glenn’s account of Ukraine’s worsening air defense
31:11 Could allies send Patriots and be backfilled later?
32:29 Why hunting mobile missile launchers is so difficult
34:22 Why Russian air defenses struggle with drones
35:30 Cancian’s Marine artillery and targeting experience
37:01 How to get the RH Daily Intel Brief
About Mark Cancian
Mark Cancian is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department and a retired U.S. Marine Corps Reserve colonel. He previously served as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division at the Office of Management and Budget.
Mark Cancian at CSIS (https://www.csis.org/people/mark-f-cancian)
Read the report discussed: Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire (https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire)
How to find Glenn Corn
Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).